Economic Armageddon???
Next Crisis?? next bubble ? >>What the ....F@%k No No Wait!
Before you say something else, or react in any violent way. There is no recession, nor a global pandemonium happening now as we speak , neither there is no cause for alarm or panic about this impending economic collapse, there is none.... .not YET but still to come .
As a teaser.. I recommend watching this 46 minute documentary first in order to help you understand
the fundamental cause of this whole mess we are in.
I will try to explain as simple as far as my limited brain could go and as comprehensive as possible in explaining the findings and research that i made. The collaboration of different useful sources of information that i gathered from reliable independent research institutions such as the Elliott wave international, Traders world newsletter,markettrendforecast.com and from the Trends Research Institute's Trendsjournal Newsletter. People might think that I maybe a pessimist porn, radical minded, or one of the Doom and gloom people here on earth., which I beg to dis-agree. It is all based on factual historical data and observations made by expert market forecasters such as in the personality of Gerard Celente, Peter Shift , B.Rogers and many more and supported with my own research on past historical study of the US DOW jones (DOW) as my barometer. I am not an expert of anything ; as others thought of me or having a PHD in any business school , nor I'm not a self proclaim Oracle ; but just simply be as an instrument and an eye opener to the truth on what reality we are in and the future we are facing. I know many people would not like this, simply because its too gloomy to digest , especially when the memories of the last recession is still fresh in their minds. Maybe others would choose to condemn those who who does not sing to their tune, or maybe some would prefer killing the messenger because they simply cannot accept the message. My sole intention is not to scare and install fear in the hearts of everyone but for all of us to be prepared for the worst economic depression in history to come.- God Forbid
I will neither endorse or implicate my conclusions but merely present my evidence as a technical Analyst in a Trader's perspective. Its still up to the reader to decide on what he/she chooses to believe in. Again, I would like to reiterate that this are just my personal observations and conclusions and are not be liable on any effect on your financial decisions.
I will be stating my cause from this 3 different perspectives or different methodologies. The Fundamental aspect, was already clearly explained by the Video documentary (clip shown above).So I will be discussion more on the technical Aspect of forecasting.
1. Elliott wave perspective
2. Mainstream Technical Analysis
3. Astrological Business Cycles
In order for us to get general bird's eye view of the Global economy, there is no better economic gauge than the United states Dow Jones Industrial. Since, It is the world's largest economy and it is by far the trading partner of the whole world having its consumer based economy and US dollar as the world's global reserve currency . My heartfelt thanks to my good friend for providing me this historical data of the DOW jones index since 1720.
I. Elliott wave count.
In order for us to understand where we are going, we must look back on where we have been. Looking at the long history of the DOW jones , since 1720 , the US economy has under gone a number of economic boom ,recession and depression. Even from its long economic history, it was able to surpass at least 17 economic recession and managed to survived it all; it has undergone as what ellotician would call as economic cycles of economic boom , panic ,recession, depression and revolution . And definitely proven in itself as not only the most bullish economy but also the most resilient in the world.
From Elliott wave count starting from 1720, the illustration above is according to A.J Frost and P.R Prechter as what they call the "DOW super cycle". The Dow super cycle started from the birth of the American society. This cycle repeats every 84 years of economic cycle . So for this 21st century, we are ending the 24th cycle. And we are somewhere nearing an economic depression.
The Dow is now within the correction phase - sub -Wave 4 ( shown above) that is part of a Major wave ( 3- 4- 5) wave for the Dow supercycle. Meaning for the whole year of 2011, is just part of a correction phase of a bigger wave pattern. Those who are not familiar with the Elliott wave theory , the wave 4 is a correction wave pattern before the last leg wave 5. And Wave 5 is the last Bull run in the the whole Elliott wave pattern, it is also the most bullish of all bull run.
Interestingly, there is a study made by Kondratieff which formulated the so called
Kondratiev wave theory th the an economic cycle is usually characterized by a
expansion, stagnation, recession. More common today is the division into four periods with a turning point (collapse) between the first and second phases. Writing in the 1920s, Kondratiev proposed to apply the theory to the 19th century:
- 1790–1849 with a turning point in 1815.
- 1850–1896 with a turning point in 1873.
- Kondratiev supposed that, in 1896, a new cycle had started.
Also, at the end of every cycle is always succeeded by major wars in history. Then after that , a new cycle of development of human history is formed.
Looking at the Broader perspective; from 1931 till present we can see a very large "Head and shoulder pattern". And this head and shoulder pattern is not an ordinary H& S pattern but considered a Broadening Head and shoulders pattern because of its opening gap between support and resistance that seems to be widening to the right. This I may say is more dangerous than a typical head and shoulders pattern because the broader the gap between the two lines, the more powerful the magnitude of the correction it will have and this i believe is very devastating.
Notice that for 2009- 2010. when the US Government started bailing out losing companies, banks then started the Stimulus package program to pump up the economy- the DOW jones prices goes up while the volume goes done. ( negative divergence). Which means that this bull run is an artificial bull run and is poised to drop again and up until another Quantitative easing is given by the government.
For 2011, last July 28- the US congress made a bold move of voting for the increase in Debt ceiling of the country and promoting draconian moves on reducing govt expenses and budget deficit. Which in effect added uncertainty to the already volatile market.
This, I believe put the politicians a gun to their heads and made the American people into deeper mess they are already in. They did not really solved the problem and just created a bigger one, this is also the last bullet the FED can do in order to keep the economy going and keep the fancy game of dumping more money into the market. This in turn will cause a temporary stock Market Rally in the short turn till 2012 and buy us more time, but for the rest of the world, they are exporting inflation(hyper inflation) and food prices will sky rocket and Gold and silver prices to soar.
3. Astrological Business Cycles
Many Financial Astrologers would agree that the US economy behaves in the 56 year synodic cycle.
( Jupiter-Uranus synodic cycle). The 56-year cycle appears to correlate with angular relationships between the sun and moon: the angles 0 deg and 180 deg between the sun, moon, and nodes repeat to within one degree every 56 and 9 solar years. Perfect correlations exist between the 36 year sub-cycles and: 1) zodiacal placement of the conjunctions of the sun and moon’s north node; 2) the moon angles to these sun and moon’s north node conjunctions; 3) the position of the moon’s north node on a specific date of the year. Major financial crises are most likely to occur when the moon’s north node is in the quadrants: Aries-Taurus-Gemini and Libra-Scorpio-Sagittarius. or other words happen between months covered by those zodiac signs. Several variables combine to give rise to complex cyclical behavior.
Specific patterns never repeat exactly but vary and change progressively over long time spans.
McMinn’s ideas presented here were adapted from the Technical Securities Analysts Association
of San Francisco monthly newsletter, April, 1996.
THE US NATAL CHART
From a book on McWhirter's North node Business Cycle: here are some except:
" The Rise and fall of prices is governed by the Law of SUpply and Demand, which in turn governed by the law of the universe, known as the law of Action and Reaction. periods of business prosperity and depression are not man made nor the results of chance, they come at regular intervals, the same as the seasons and the same as the astronomical laws which govern the nature, govern man and all man's activities. When this fact is recognized, man will work in harmony with the forces of nature and not blindly against them "
- many Recessions in the US could be explained and predicted by the Moon's North Node cycle. Her research showed that the low point of US economy was reached when the North node transits Aquarious and the Highest point dutring Leo.
-whenever the North node passes through the scorpio and Libra, there is an transition period as the curve passes from the normal, but slowly going to normal.
-Taurus is the transition point normal point as the curve goes down from normal to below normal in business volume.
- When the north node enters Aquarius, the low point of business activity has been reached. As the Node transit Capricorn and Sagitaurus, the normal position of the business curve is below normal going to normal.
-This is the natural position of the curve without the presence of the secondary factors which can be distort the curve favourably or unfavourably from 1 - 20 %.
Here shown below is a shorter business cycle every 18.6 yrs describing Business Cycle highs and lows.
Source: Astrology for Gann Traders
by Olga Morales
From studying the Ephemeris, and computations on Astrological cycles and ingris. And taking into account the Elliott wave counts and my Technical Analysis all together. Then applying all this data on my graph for the DOW jones and projecting it to significant future price and time turning points using Market Geometry. The possible candidate for Panic might fall on the 3rd-4th quarter of 2013 when the Moons North Node passes thru the houses of scorpio and Libra.( between months of Aug - November)-followed by a Recession that may last until the end of 2014.- I may be wrong but just my intelligent guess. But this low will actually be triggered by a sudden drop on the Dow jones index as much as 500+ % basis points that would fall on the 50% to 66.6% retracement. Also I see another big One coming from the first quarter of 2016. for the Dow to visit somewhere 7,000 level.
So what will happen by 2012? is it the end of the world? not like most people think; surprisingly from what i seen in my graph : it is the exact opposite.
2012 will be a bull year almost the whole year round. and will have some correction somewhere in the 2nd quarter of the year and the last quarter of the year. Maybe some shivers from this 2012 end of the world phenomena ,but it will still continue until the 3rd quarter of 2013.
But for 2011- this year will be a transition from consolidation ( first half of the year Jan -July) to
Bearish sentiment ( from Aug -Dec) this year for the DOW. But the economy will start to pick from the bottom somewhere starting 1st quarter of 2012 to start the bull run as part of the Wave 5 run until 2013.
And from this all time high level -every industry is booming and the majority of us will never think that the economy will dive , then that is the time that the inevitable will occur at our most unexpected day.
Conclusion
As you can see: from the three methods that I have shown, Elliott wave , Technical analysis and astronomical timing, these three independent methods that i have shown diverge into one common conclusion. That an economic colapse is eminent. I don't know exactly how or when , but these sciences if i may call it points into one conclusion. Again, this is not to install fear and anxiety , but to show the truth about the not so rosy future we are in. Only the astute, the vigilant and the wise will be prepared are be able to survive the crisis. But again and again, history tells us that human spirit was able to surpass and survives all cataclysmic phenomenon including past 17 economic crisis, the american people will still be there and will not be lost ,but will emerge stronger than before as we have known about American society as always resilient as before , but this must happen and should correct in order to teach us the lessons we should learn as the children of god and as part of the universal law.
But for the Philippine market: we can not escape from this turmoil, but with our strong economic fundamentals plus the decoupling effects by having strong domestic demands we might be buffered for the worst economic impact , as western economic powers will be stripped off of this privileged as global super power after the collapse, a new global currency is being prepared to replace the dollar , also in the long run it will be good for the country as it can also put our country as a better opportunity for investments as wealth will figuratively transferred to emerging markets such as the Philippine market.
-PinoyGtrader
caveat
