Market Forecast Review ( Sept 12,2011- Feb 4,2012)

This is a quarterly  Market Forecast Review  which primary purpose is to grade the accuracy of the Forecast based on actual Historical Market data .  The  Author is also made aware of his own errors in calculation and  the importance of continuous improvement  of his forecasting methodology.

The chart shown below (dates omitted) is an historical chart from Sept 12 till Feb 4,2012.  The blue lines are projection lines of price direction. Red lines are projection line for 2012.

Grade sheet :  PSEi forecast vs Actual Price history
   In all honesty,  tabulated  below are the forecast dates as data points together with their corresponding price equivalent and computed their time and price deviation .

Conclusion:

Based on historical data, from the 20 mentioned swing /reversal dates as data points.  In terms of forecasting the  TIME for the reversal/swing dates, I was able to correctly predict 13 out of 20 dates within 1 - 2 days allowable error which gives it an 65% accuracy.   For forecasting Price levels of resistance, support and price target; i was able to  predict 6 out of 20 price levels  with 4% -11% points percentage error which gives it an  mere 35% accuracy.
          Therefore, based on the tabulated data; it is fair to say that i have given a more accurate timing forecast than price target in the given period ,and that there is  much more work to be done  to improve in forecasting  price targets.