2012 Annual Economic Forecast

For 2012 Economic Forecast : the stock Philippine Market in general will be better than 2011. Based on my forecasting method  and technical analysis tools :  There will be a “ baby bull” or a short fivemonth rally in the stock Market and the global economy : the first half of the year will be good for the stock market as  a rally will  be starting from the  last week of January  till 3rd   week of  May (Fall 2012), then the remaining half of the year will be on a sideways consolidation( high volatility) or having an ascending triangle formation that will drag till the rest of the year.

Global Arena

The   fundamental driver of this  growth is basically due to the recovery of the global economy headed by the US economy  , political climax in the US , the Philippines’ strong domestic economy, increased export demands, higher oil prices ,easing inflation ,easing food prices , lower interest rates, a rally in the dollar  and a  pick up in the Chinese economy.  But this rally cannot be sustained thru out the year, for the ghost of the Euro crisis will start to haunt the market again, and it will correct starting on the second half of the year, and another wildcard is added along the table which is China.

On hind sight, do not be deceived my friends; I’m not saying that the Euro crisis is gone. They will just kick the can along the road ; the problem  will never be fixed and hide it under the mat, as governments will be buried to tremendous amount of debts,and continue printing staggering amounts of money. Social unrest will continue, and government instability will continue in the middle east.  While   Merkel and his friends will make the euro power to be more dominant and centralized to save other euro members and will make a “magic fix” telling everyone that they have the solution to this crisis.  Remember that for 2012 will be a political climax around the world, as  there will be about  a forty elections happening around the globe  and governments will be spending a lot of money  which that includes Germany’s ,Italy and the US election this year, and this politicians  wants to win it.  .  I also see an increase tensions in the middle east this year especially between the US and Iran for the sons of the Illuminatti will drive the US into war,  but I don’t see a full  blown  war this year yet but the seed for the first major war in this century will be planted.

Forecast Graphs for PSEi

Local Market

On the local arena: Philippine stock market, the index will be in good shape compared  to last year.  It will also be dragged by the rally in the US market.  I see the peak of the Stock Market this year on  last week of May.  And another   two secondary peaks on months of Feb- March and October ( seen in the graph above for estimated dates).  But on the second half of the year , the market is sitting on strong support at 4304 and  4403 and I believe the economy will weather the storm and will allow the market ( PSEi )  to consolidate  on a higher range between 4445 – 4800 [ B- B' ]until the end of the year.

 For the Phils Market : My stock  pick  winners for the first half of the years are stocks on the sector of Power generation, Property sectors.( between months of Feb – May) and  mining stocks while on the second quarter are stocks from the banking and brokerage will be a good choice in the months of April to May. Food producing stocks will still be a bargain good to buy long. There will be weakness in the market by months of June to Aug and start to pick up by Sept and will peak by October. Your favorite Gold producing Mining stocks will enter a short consolidation but it will peak by the months March, May and August this year. May rally is due to economic demand while Aug is due to financial crisis and  loss in  monetary confidence which still makes it a safe haven in the long term. The currency market will be in a roller coaster ride this year, but in the near term the US dollar and the swiss frank seems yo be more attractive and looks to be a safe haven short term where a rally is eminent.

Philippine Market Cycles Analysis

    - this graph shows the approximate monthly wave formation of the Market

Philippine Market Geometric Analysis

Referenced from 1st Harmonic sequence

  -  this shows the approximate geometrical formation. 

( a more accurate price approximation than wave analysis)

Long  trade positions are suggested on the dates shown above.
Arrows Down - recommends sell position
Arrows Up - recommends buy long position

Disclaimer : The Author is not liable to any outcome

on your trading/ financial decisions  because the recommendations are based on his personal methodology and is solely for informative purposes only. Everyone is advice to trade at their own risk.

Have a Prosperous  New Year 

Caveat!

-PinoyGtrader