The Traders Guide for the Filipino market

A Traders Guide for the Filipino Trader in the Philippine Market


"If we wish to avert failure in speculation, we must deal with causes. Everything in Existence is based on exact proportion and perfect relationship. There is no chance in nature, because mathematical principles in the highest order lie at the foundation of all things" -PYTHAGOREAS

Thursday, November 10, 2011

PSEi Forecast - Final (Nov 1 - Dec 9 )

Updated-  Nov 10,2011


I made a final run down on my calculations and a thorough check and balance approach to each and every data points in my chart. Checking on the latest data i gathered  and feeding them on the same formula for finding the average latency for the fractal dimension "D" of the index and subjecting them to numerous iterations to come up with a julia sets and ploting them up on my chart based on geometric rules and Fibonacci  ratios then the new graph would be  as follows.




Since,  the stock market is a Fractal.  What kind of fractal pattern is it?   
Of the  many different fractal patterns that  appears in nature , the most prescribed  with the highest similarity is the Brownian motion pattern or what they call the "Wiener process".



The Wiener process is  a fractal and looks very much like stock price movements.  It is a continuous time stochastic process that charts Brownian Motion and is used in the mathematical theory of finance as well as the Black-Scholes option pricing model.  It is clearly self similar and the average features of the function do not change while zooming in.





Fractal dimension
There is no argument that market prices are fractal. Price charts look similar regardless of time frame. If you remove the labels from a five-minute chart, a daily chart, and a weekly chart, you would have difficulty telling them apart. Fractal shapes are self-similar because they have the same roughness and sparseness regardless of time interval. This self-similarity can be defined by the fractal dimension that describes sparseness at all magnification levels.
To determine the fractal dimension of a generalized pattern, we cover the pattern with a number N of small objects of several various sizes S. The relationship of the number of objects in two sets of sizes is:



The Fractal Dimension “D” is a measure of how completely a Fractal appears to fill space as one zooms down to finer and finer scales.  So what is a fractal?  It is a rough or fragmented shape that can be split into parts, each of which is at least similar to a reduced size copy of the original.


Therefore ; the computed  estimated latency for the Philippine market are from the bar graph shown below:




Swing chart
For day traders  my  recommended strategy is  shown below:


Low Days- Nov 1-2    Bottom - Buy
High Days- Nov 7-8    Peak  -  Sell
Low Days -Nov 14-15  Bottom - Quick buy and Quick Sell
High Days -Nov 24-25  Bottom - Buy 
Low Days -Nov 28-29   Nuetral - Hold
High days - Dec 5-6    Nuetral - Sell/ Hold
Low days - Dec 7-9   Bottom - Buy 


I know for the disappointment of many ,I don't recommend specific entry and exit points for a specific stock; this is because i wan't  for my fellow traders to trade with their own skill or prowess and to trade  soley for their own risk.  What i am just providing  to everyone is  the right timing when to execute their trade that increases their chances of success. Because the key for a successfull  trade is a trading plan that was executed at the right timing, which make a big difference between success and failure.




'Timing is everything"-


PinoyGtrader
-caveat




For more info you can check the sources below:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wiener_process
http://etfhq.com/blog/2011/02/12/fractal-dimension/
http://www.traders.com/Documentation/FEEDbk_docs/2010/06/Ehlers.html

About Me

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AN INDEPENDENT TRADER AND BLOGGER THAT OFFERS A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE ON LOOKING INTO THE PHILIPPINE MARKET WHICH DOCTRINES ARE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF TECHNICAL TRADING METHODOLOGIES AND UNCONVENTIONAL WISDOM OF ANCIENT ESOTHERIC KNOWLEDGE AND PRACTICES FOR TRADING STOCKS AND COMMODITIES IN THE MARKET; WHICH PRIMARY GOAL IS TO FORECAST THE MARKET TREND OF THE PHILIPPINE MARKET AND SHARE ITS OPINION TO BENEFIT SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PHILIPPINE MARKET TO ACHIEVE ENORMOUS FINANCIAL REWARDS. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT GIVE SPECIFIC BUY OR SELL SIGNALS FOR A SPECIFIC STOCK BUT RATHER A GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE MARKET. THE AUTHOR IS NOT CONNECTED TO ANY GROUP OR ORGANIZATION(NON-RELIGIOUS,NON-SOCIAL AND NON-SECTARIAN) AND DOES NOT HAVE ANY OTHER PURPOSE OTHER THAN TO EXPRESS HIS OWN PERSONAL ANALYSIS AND OPINION AS FREE INFORMATION TO ALL.